Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants
Million metric tons, in thousands
2.0
Without regulation*
1.5
1.0
With regulation
0.5
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
*Does not include recent extension of renewable energy tax credits.
2.0
Without regulation*
1.5
1.0
With regulation
0.5
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
*Does not include recent extension of renewable energy tax credits.
Why was this such a surprise?
The Supreme Court has never before placed a stay on a regulation before there has even been review in a federal appeals court. Legal experts say it sends a strong signal that the court is likely to eventually overturn the rule entirely.
Who supported this order? Who opposed it?
At least 27 states and dozens of corporations and industry groups had requested the stay, seeking to block the E.P.A. from influencing the energy grids within the states. But 18 states opposed the request for the stay, saying that the delay would compound the harm from climate change, like more severe storms, wildfires and droughts.
Supported
Opposed
Supported
Opposed
How does this affect the ability of the U.S. to make good on its emission reduction pledge?
The decision could imperil the international global warming accord reached in Paris in December. A cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, the first accord to commit every country to combating climate change, was President Obama’s assurance that the United States would carry out strong policies to significantly cut carbon emissions. If the rule is eventually overturned, it could keep the United States from meeting its commitments in Paris. Already, climate diplomats from other countries have expressed concern that this could unravel the terms of the Paris accord.
United States Pledge to Cut Emissions
Gigatons of CO2 equivalent per year
15
Business as usual
10
Reduction
5
Pledge
0
2000
2030
2100
15
Business as usual
10
Reduction
5
Pledge
0
2000
2030
2100
When will the Supreme Court make a final decision?
The climate rule will remain frozen while its legal status is uncertain, and that will take awhile. A Federal Appeals Court will hear oral arguments on the rule on June 2, and is expected to issue its decision later this year. An appeal to the Supreme Court is all but certain. If the justices agree to hear the case, a ruling is unlikely before June 2017. The Supreme Court's decision on the final rule will either unfreeze the hold and require states to go back to creating their plans, or it would simply overturn the rule entirely.
What happens if the rule is overturned?
If the rule is eventually overturned, it's not the end of the road for a climate change regulation. The E.P.A. is still required by law to regulate carbon dioxide emissions. So the agency will have to go back to the drawing board to write a new climate change rule. What that rule will look like, and how strong it will be, will depend on the priorities of the next president.
